Al-shabab
- Thread starter Bluefire
- Start date
1- Anywhere from 3k - 5k, yes they still pose a threat to the government but not like before. They have been weakend especially last 10 years.
2- Because we are retards
3- Al Shabaab are qabill blind, all major sub clans are represented within Al Shabaab some more than others (Rahanweyn & minorities)
2- Because we are retards
3- Al Shabaab are qabill blind, all major sub clans are represented within Al Shabaab some more than others (Rahanweyn & minorities)
Naah they are no way near much of a threat to the government as taliban and thereβs a reason for that. Taliban members was around 80-100k when they took control of Afghanistan around august and it definitely increased since they took power. Al shabaab number roughly around 6k. Moreover taliban have always had big funding from their ethnic Pashtun brothers both in Afghanistan and Pashtuns living in Pakistan who always supported them and funded them. Taliban have therefore always had some sort of fan base by the civilians from their ethnic group. Taliban also just want to take power of their country whilst territory groups like al shabaab want to take over the whole of east Africa and more and they tend to be more crazy then taliban in terms of their rulings makin the taliban more tolerable to the west. In under no circumstances will the west Negotiate with al shabaab as they have been doing with the taliban for the past few years. However in no means is al shabaab weak. Since farmajo came their passive influenced expanded and now they have Intel everywhere Even in Mogadishu. 2016 I was able to go from xamar to jowhar by car. Nowadays the journey is far too dangerous to make by land. In terms of clans, all the big dogs and leaders of al shabaab tend to hail from all clans whilst most of their foot soilders come from tribes that have been abused in Somalia by bigger clans and take advantage of Al shabaab to seek revenge like eelay and Madow.other tribes such as mursade make up a good number of their troops as well.
How long would you say it would take for al shabaab to be defeated. If the next president is really determined I would say 3-5 years with the hardest battles taking place in middle Jubba as itβs 100% shabaab territory
No one honestly knows how long will it take to get rid of Al Shabaab, but with the current state of the national army it may take another 10 years or more.
Al Shabaab went underground, they can't fight AMISOM, ENDF, KDF, SNA head on they can only last using guerilla warfare and Aminiyat intelligence network to extort and tax the ordinary people.
Al Shabab are low key and very difficult to uproot.
Yeahh al shabaab are becoming weak territory wise but as you said they have such an extensive network within the general population it will be very hard to infiltrate it
Somalia's frightening network of Islamist spies
Al-Shabab remains largely undiminished thanks to its sophisticated intelligence network.
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beesha caalamka and fgs will negotiate with them at some point in the future. but not while kabul is a recent memory.
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They consider the government and supporters as kuffar making negotiations unlikely.
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