Yep, The road to mekele was captured, troops in the south will be deprived of resources. I don’t think things will go well for the government though, the tigrayans will prolong the fight if they retreat (the best scenario since staying surrounded will be disastrous).
They will abandon their vehicles and go by foot. Abiy will allow a path for them to escape to. One of the worst decision in military when winning is to make the enemy think there is no way out, they will then fight a million times harder. And a soldier that think either fight my way out or death will win over a soldier that has options.
you want them to think that it is hopeless for them to continue fighting not hopeless that if I don't fight I will die.
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