Abiy is plotting to disarm the regions. Ethiopian civil war part 300

[Burqad]

 

[SPMLegend]

I hope they proceed with this and send most of them home. Ethiopia will be a step closer to complete disintegration. Hopefully ONLF makes a major military come back. TPLF in the past was forcefully recruiting Somali boys to fight against ONLF. With the dismantlement of these Janissaries it would be easier to focus the war effort entirely on the Ethiopian Military

 

[SPMLegend]

By the way any sources or info from Sajid Nadeem should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is the same guy who was telling us that TPLF was winning the war only to see Reda Getachew bending the knee for Abiye.

 

[GaradShabeel]

I hope they proceed with this and send most of them home. Ethiopia will be a step closer to complete disintegration. Hopefully ONLF makes a major military come back. TPLF in the past was forcefully recruiting Somali boys to fight against ONLF. With the dismantlement of these Janissaries it would be easier to focus the war effort entirely on the Ethiopian Military

Do you think that it will happen?

ONLF recently expressed that they would reconsider the peace agreement signed in 2018, since the gov't failed to live up to their commitments.

Here's the chairman two months ago

 

[SPMLegend]

Do you think that it will happen?

ONLF recently expressed that they would reconsider the peace agreement signed in 2018, since the gov't failed to live up to their commitments.

Here's the chairman two months ago

They need a big overhaul in the organization structure starting with the chairman himself. They need to be less political and more militant. I even advocate for them to seek out weapons through the black Market channels. They need to contact Iran as well. You’ve seen the way they armed the Houthis in Yemen. A Defense Pact with Iran is a Major game breaker. Iran arms their allies with drones and missiles while the Arab Monarchies give us scrap metal vehicle leftovers of the westerners.

 

[GaradShabeel]

They need a big overhaul in the organization structure starting with the chairman himself. They need to be less political and more militant. I even advocate for them to seek out weapons through the black Market channels. They need to contact Iran as well. You’ve seen the way they armed the Houthis in Yemen. A Defense Pact with Iran is a Major game breaker. Iran arms their allies with drones and missiles while the Arab Monarchies give us scrap metal vehicle leftovers of the westerners.


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I agree. But I'm afraid that the times of military struggle is over. Abiy's regime is different from any other we've seen before. His crackdown are ruthless, look at Tigray and now Oromia.

The only practical way for us succeeding is if we see other liberation groups throughout the entire country, facing the gov't at the same time since they would never be able to beat us all, at once. We've seen their weakness. In Tigray, they needed Eritreans and Amharas, just to keep Tigrayans at stand-still. We've also seen their failures in combatting several fronts at the same time recently. Hence, why they choose to pause their counter-activities against OLA, during the Tigray war.

Below (blue-marked areas) map is the areas OLA controlled (updated 2 months ago)

 

[SPMLegend]

I agree. But I'm afraid that the times of military struggle is over. Abiy's regime is different from any other we've seen before. His crackdown are ruthless, look at Tigray and now Oromia.

The practical way for us succeeding is if we see other liberation groups throughout the enitre country, facing the gov't at the same time. We've seen their weakness, in combatting several fronts at the same time recently. Hence, why they choose to pause their counter-activities against OLA.

Below map is the areas OLA controlled (updated last 2 months ago)


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That’s the history of Ethiopian Criminals. They have always been ruthless. They target the civilian population with war crimes and force out the rebels to seek peace deals. If TPLF was to continue fighting the war in the end they would’ve inherited the dirt with no Tigray population left to govern. Ethiopia is similar to the Soviet Russia. When they couldn’t defeat the chechens in multiple battles they always targeted the Chechen villagers and city dwellers with genocide until they forced out the rebel traitors like Kadyrov & Akhmat to surrender and root out his former comrades. Abiye’s current campaign in oromia is a path of destruction. His campaign will be a lot easier than Tigray since he has many Oromo Dhabodhilifs like Shimelis on his side.

 

[GaradShabeel]

That’s the history of Ethiopian Criminals. They have always been ruthless. They target the civilian population with war crimes and force out the rebels to seek peace deals. If TPLF was to continue fighting the war in the end they would’ve inherited the dirt with no Tigray population left to govern. Ethiopia is similar to the Soviet Russia. When they couldn’t defeat the chechens in multiple battles they always targeted the Chechen villagers and city dwellers with genocide until they forced out the rebel traitors like Kadyrov & Akhmat to surrender and root out his former comrades.

It seems like the aim of the disarming of regional forces are to alleviate any threats against him. The focal point seem to be Amharas, with FANO. They are his biggest headache, at the moment. Other regional forces are not a direct threat to him, since they don't challenge the gov't.

My only concern with this move, is monopolizing all power to the central gov't. So no one can challenge them, regardless of what crazy act they later on decides to do.

Also from what I've heard, the plan seem to be to turn the regional gov't into army reserves. Even if it happens, those same forces will be used against us if we were to fight them again.

So I'm at odds, with how I feel about this move.

 

[Abaq]

The Liyu Police were what saved Ethiopia. If they disband them, Ethiopia will inevitably collapse yet again and the westerners won’t be able to save it this time. During the Derg everyone became a citizen but that wasn’t enough, under TPLF they tried ethic federalism but that wasn’t enough. Next it will be full proper confederation or total collapse.

We should take the back seat and let the other ethnic groups fight. Once Addis is about to collapse we should spring into action. Let the Oromo and Axmar die first

 

[Cartan Boos]

ethiopia will not fall, they're important to the west

 

[Aurelian]

They need a big overhaul in the organization structure starting with the chairman himself. They need to be less political and more militant. I even advocate for them to seek out weapons through the black Market channels. They need to contact Iran as well. You’ve seen the way they armed the Houthis in Yemen. A Defense Pact with Iran is a Major game breaker. Iran arms their allies with drones and missiles while the Arab Monarchies give us scrap metal vehicle leftovers of the westerners.


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Iran armed Ethiopains state with drones when TPLF was kilometers from Addis Ababa.
Iran having a pact with Somali region or militant group in foreign state that has no value in like Ethiopia, is a unrealistic.

Houthis and other Shia militant are very valuable to Iran that it spends precious money on them while under embargo and huge protests.

Egypt is out of the table, since it doesn't want to participate in any adventure, giving the regime is walking on thin wire. Beside that, Egypt has no will to fight ethiopia or send its army, unless for huge shunk of money.

Every media trend from Egypt vs Ethiopia is for the their local

 

[GaradShabeel]

Iran armed Ethiopains state with drones when TPLF was kilometers from Addis Ababa.
Iran having a pact with Somali region or militant group in foreign state that has no value in like Ethiopia, is a unrealistic.

Houthis and other Shia militant are very valuable to Iran that it spends precious money on them while under embargo and huge protests.

ethiopias current enemy is Egypt, in all aspect. Which is also why they accuse every political dissident or militant group inside the country, of having ties with Egypt. They're also wary of Somalia and neighboring countries, establishing close ties with Egypt. Even Sudan who are very cozy with them, is a geo-political threat.

As long as the regime is undermined in all regards, it will only point more towards the collapse of the country.

 

[Aurelian]

ethiopias current enemy is Egypt, in all aspect. Which is also why they accuse every political dissident or militant group inside the country, of having ties with Egypt. They're also wary of Somalia and neighboring countries, establishing close ties. Even Sudan who are very cozy with them, is a geo-political threas.

As long as the regime is undermined in all regards, it will point more towards the collapse of the country.

What I'm saying that, the media battle between Egypt and Ethiopia is only for local consumption. But there are no indirect fight, nor support for dissidents.

 

[SPMLegend]

What I'm saying that, the media battle between Egypt and Ethiopia is only for local consumption. But there are no indirect fight, nor support for dissidents.

The conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is an endless game of Cat Vs Mouse scenario.

 

[GaradShabeel]

What I'm saying that, the media battle between Egypt and Ethiopia is only for local consumption. But there are no indirect fight, nor support for dissidents.

I agree. Which is why I said, Egypt is the most viable country to undermine them going forward.

 

[Aurelian]

The conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is an endless game of Cat Vs Mouse scenario.

No, Egypt don't have the will, there are many things that they are thinking about, most of which stablising the economy, and preventing any up rising.

 

[SPMLegend]

Iran armed Ethiopains state with drones when TPLF was kilometers from Addis Ababa.
Iran having a pact with Somali region or militant group in foreign state that has no value in like Ethiopia, is a unrealistic.

Houthis and other Shia militant are very valuable to Iran that it spends precious money on them while under embargo and huge protests.

Egypt is out of the table, since it doesn't want to participate in any adventure, giving the regime is walking on thin wire. Beside that, Egypt has no will to fight ethiopia or send its army, unless for huge shunk of money.

Every media trend from Egypt vs Ethiopia is for the their local

The Ethiopian government bought those drones for cheap using their foreign diplomacy. Fun Fact; The Iranian shah used to support Somalia militarily in the 77 war against Ethiopia. With the current Ayotallah regime, they support factions that present 1 of the 3 categories. Either a Shia (Hezbollah,Houthi,Assad,Iraqi) group, or Anti Israeli like the Sunni Hamas group. Or Anti American like the North Koreans and Russians who were provided with Shahed Drones.

Iran May begin to supply weaponry and troops to Armenia to counter the Pro Israeli American Azerbaijani state

 

[Aurelian]

The Ethiopian government bought those drones for cheap using their foreign diplomacy. Fun Fact; The Iranian shah used to support Somalia militarily in the 77 war against Ethiopia. With the current Ayotallah regime, they support factions that present 1 of the 3 categories. Either a Shia (Hezbollah,Houthi,Assad,Iraqi) group, or Anti Israeli like the Sunni Hamas group. Or Anti American like the North Koreans and Russians who were provided with Shahed Drones.

Iran May begin to supply weaponry and troops to Armenia to counter the Pro Israeli American Azerbaijani state

However they bought them, Iran don't engage in conflict without thinking and establishing a long lasting plan, they sold their drones to Ethiopia and their closest allies. I can't see them destabilising Ethiopia with no reason. Unless of course All Oromos became Shia's and pledged allegiance to Iran and their Mullahs

 

[SPMLegend]

No, Egypt don't have the will, there are many things that they are thinking about, most of which stablising the economy, and preventing any up rising.

I’m saying that Egypt is not a strategic power to stand beside. Sisi is also an unpopular dictator. He knows a Cold War with Ethiopia will drain his resources to prevent a civil uprising. the last thing Egypt would want is unrest in the capital with Gas & electricity bills rising. Sisi Massacred 3,000 Egyptian protestors in Rabaa square and slowly killed the former National president Morsi in prison. This guy will not give up power easily.

 

[SPMLegend]

However they bought them, Iran don't engage in conflict without thinking and establishing a long lasting plan, they sold their drones to Ethiopia and their closest allies. I can't see them destabilising Ethiopia with no reason. Unless of course All Oromos became Shia's and pledged allegiance to Iran and their Mullahs

Iran wants countries to buy their drones for much cheaper price than the Turkish ones. They want to take over the Drone industry. Of-course Iran has provided Ethiopia with a replica and lesser version of their drone. They are not that stupid to give a 3rd world nation the original model. The weird relationship between the 2 sides is still unknown including Iran’s political interest in the country. In-fact Iran’s biggest enemy in Yemen aka the UAE is a major benefactor to the Abiy Ahmed regime. During the Tigray war they have provided Ethiopia with millions in cash. Iran + UAE in Ethiopia, that’s a conflict of interest right there.