"U.S To Send Defence Assistance To Somalia If Ethiopia Invades Somalia" - According To University of Massachusetts Political Science Professor

[Itsnotthateasy]

Bit ironic coming from you your incoherent babble, is well known on this site. That’s quite the achievement though, considering there are thousands of people on this site.

I’m sure this persona fits you well old timer

Ain't you the lecturer at Ohio University?

 

[Sup]

Ain't you the lecturer at Ohio University?

I see you’ve been doing some research

Ohio kulaha

nah bruv, told yah you’ll never know where I work !

On a side note, I must say. That’s a bit creepy there lad, get some help yeah !

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I see you’ve been doing some research

Ohio kulaha

nah bruv, told yah you’ll never know where I work !

On a side note, I must say. That’s a bit creepy there lad, get some help yeah !

On deeper research, seems Ohio rejected your application. Too weird.

 

[Knaan99]

China is in BRICS, Somaliland getting recognition from BRICS is unlikely, even if Ethiopia did so.

It’s not about SL. It’s Ethiopia

Outside of China, BRICs is nothing compared to G7. Russia already showed its weakness in Ukraine and Somaliland has been getting to close to Taiwan for China's liking

Again, BRICS is to undermine the USD.


And those political science “professor” work with/for the FBA. They don’t come out and talk gibberish. This piece needs a full analysis. It will give us great insight into USA position.

 

[JamalFarah]

Boots on the ground will never happen, but the US sending a carrier group and airstriking Ethiopian targets and helping turbo-boost Somali training and equipment would be a game changer. Thats what they would do for Somalia, FANO, OLF and Tigray would deff get some very generous man in suits bring them gifts.

If someone is going to deploy boots to the grounds its Egypt, Egypt already has primed its population to hate Ethiopia based on its dam project, a foreign war is a good way to distract dissatisfied population in the eyes of Sisi.

Western aid bought Russia to its knees, a internally divided Ethiopia will be balkanized.

Somaliland can switch side at any moment. The MoU is not popular among the population and the moment this shit actually gets serious they can and will abort it. Ethiopia though, will probably not stop even if that happens.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Boots on the ground will never happen, but the US sending a carrier group and airstriking Ethiopian targets and helping turbo-boost Somali training and equipment would be a game changer. Thats what they would do for Somalia, FANO, OLF and Tigray would deff get some very generous man in suits bring them gifts.

If someone is going to deploy boots to the grounds its Egypt, Egypt already has primed its population to hate Ethiopia based on its dam project, a foreign war is a good way to distract dissatisfied population in the eyes of Sisi.

Western aid bought Russia to its knees, a internally divided Ethiopia will be balkanized.

Somaliland can switch side at any moment. The MoU is not popular among the population and the moment this shit actually gets serious they can and will abort it. Ethiopia though, will probably not stop even if that happens.

Think about what you are saying for a minute.

You think US wants a balkanized Ethiopia? They are holding Somalia together out of desperation. Imagine a collapsed Ethiopia with extremists spreading everywhere. That's a nightmare scenario for them.

 

[JamalFarah]

Think about what you are saying for a minute.

You think US wants a balkanized Ethiopia? They are holding Somalia together out of desperation. Imagine a collapsed Ethiopia with extremists spreading everywhere. That's a nightmare scenario for them.

The extremist ideology poses only significant challenge within Khawarij factions. Within the Habesha this is not a real concern. Ethiopia has been a concern since aligning with the Russo-Chinese axis. While the collapse of Ethiopia is not the objective, the looming threat is now a pressing consideration for Abiy, given the evident Western opposition.

Amhara aspirations envision a dominant Ethiopia under their influence, some for the Tigray and Oromo while only Somalis and a smaller part of the Oromos advocate for secession. The ultimate U.S. goal is to transform the centralized government into inert, decentralized entities that pose no threat to the regional balance, and with U.S. interests.

Drawing parallels with Iraq and Syria, the U.S. strategy doesn't involve carving out puppet states but rather establishing U.S.-aligned blocs within these nations to act as a deterrent or putting in a US-aligned central government, preventing them from straying too far from U.S. interests.

The United State has pushed It's weight, to some degree, behind the federal government. On top of both Egypt and Turkey voicing support.

The Gulf nations have been cautious, reacting once the prevailing direction becomes evident. If Somalia and its allies manage to intimidate Ethiopia, the Gulf states will naturally align with that outcome. Conversely, if Ethiopia succeeds in securing the port, and Somalia and its allies remain passive, the Gulf states will lean in that direction.

Considerg the Gaza genocide where the Gulf nations refrain from taking action. Now instead, they militarily support a Christian nation against a Muslim one, that is a PR nightmare for them.

 

[Layu]

This flaw pushed Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to sign a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland. The deal would give Ethiopia land to build a naval base and access to the port of Berbera. In return, Ethiopia would become the first state to recognize the sovereignty of Somaliland and, to a less important extent, give them a share of Ethiopia Airlines. Somalia, which has denied the sovereignty of Somaliland since it declared independence in 1991, is furious.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has called the port deal illegal, while Ahmed insists he is only seeking sea access for his country. If he is truly looking for better port access, then he must recognize the implications of his trade deal and back out of it.

Ahmed has been aggressive in his attempts to centralize power in Ethiopia since becoming prime minister in 2018. After delaying the 2020 election, he waged war on the Tigray ethnic group, one of many self-governing groups in Ethiopia, after they held their own election in September 2020. The Tigray region is allowed to hold its own elections under the 1995 Ethiopian constitution, yet hundreds of thousands died in Ahmed’s conflict. He detained political opponents and arrested journalists who were reporting on the Tigray War, likely because of the horrifying violence and destruction committed by his Ethiopian National Defence Forces.

After the end of the Tigray War in 2022, a United Nations investigation concluded that all sides of the conflict had committed war crimes. Ahmed is not the only guilty party, but the war didn’t begin until his aggression in the Tigray region.

Armed conflict aside, he’s tried to set up a port in Somaliland before. In 2019, he bought a stake in the development of the Port of Berbera but failed to make payments due to the strain of the Tigray War.

Despite what his time in office might lead you to believe, Ahmed isn’t stupid. He knew exactly how Somalia and other nations would react to his deal because he’s tested these waters before. He can pose that he only wants the new port to save money for his country, and that he only wants the naval base to protect Ethiopia’s sea trade, but he knows the implications of this deal — which makes it even scarier that he went through with it. He doesn’t care what anybody else thinks and is willing to escalate these tensions if it means securing the deal.

Hassan announced, “If Ethiopia insists, Somalia will resist,” a vague statement with threatening implications. Because his nation does not recognize Somaliland, Hassan views the establishment of a naval base at Berbera the same way President Joe Biden would view the development of a Chinese naval base at the Florida Keys.

But is he right to condemn this deal so strongly, or is he over-exaggerating in favour of his own nation’s cause? University of Massachusetts political science Professor MJ Peterson weighed in. In this case, she told me it will be unlikely that Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland will matter, as it’s not just Somalia they’re acting against.

“The leasing of land for a naval base is a sovereign act, and therefore Ethiopia has gone against the AU and the United Nations, both of which have stated that Somalia should remain as one country,” Peterson said. By engaging with the breakaway state in this manner, she argued, Ethiopia has already committed the regional sin of informally recognizing Somaliland.

The United States shares the position of the AU and the UN and sends considerable funding to Somalia’s military, which is mainly used to combat the dangerous al-Shabbab terrorist group. It has also strengthened diplomatic relations with the country since they established a new constitution in 2012. Should Somalia become entangled in a conflict with Ethiopia, the U.S. will likely send millions in humanitarian aid and defence assistance. It’s not out of the question that U.S. troops could be deployed to defend Somalia, either.

But it isn’t U.S. tax dollars we should be concerned about. We are at a rare and brief moment in this situation. The snowball has begun to roll, but only words have been exchanged. If armed conflict begins because of this spat, it is the people of East Africa that will suffer the most.

It’s important to note that this deal is not legally binding; it’s simply an agreement between two parties. There is still time to right this wrong. We cannot allow Ahmed to continue to escalate. He is not afraid of war and doesn’t value the lives of innocent people. The region and the continent will be completely reshaped by an East African conflict, with millions of lives in danger of getting caught in the crossfire. We don’t want to look back in the future and wish something had been done to prevent this escalation.

Where is this from?