The Economist calls Hassan Sheikh Mohamud a failure

[Duchess]

One man, no vote

HOW do you hold an election without registering voters? That is the question confronting Somali politicians—as well as hordes of diplomats, NGOs and other international hangers-on—trying to create a functional government in Somalia, a country that has been without a functioning central state apparatus since the fall of its military regime back in 1991.

Somalia has been attempting to build a government since 2007, when an African Union (AU) peacekeeping force occupied the country, after Ethiopia had invaded it a year earlier. A provisional constitution was drawn up in 2012, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a former academic and aid worker, was elected president of a transitional government. The process is supposed to culminate in an election next year to create a Somali government with support across the whole country.

To the surprise of no one involved, Mr Hassan announced in July that a one-man, one-vote election next year will not be possible after all. He cited the continuing fight with al-Shabab, a jihadist group linked to al-Qaeda, and the need to maintain national unity. That the government is incapable of conducting a vote in most of the country was obviously also a factor.

Now that a traditional election has been ruled out, the most likely compromise, says Matt Bryden, a Nairobi-based analyst who was the co-ordinator of the UN’s Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group until 2012, will follow the “4.5” formula. Elders from the four main Somali clans plus various minority clans will act as representative electors.

That was roughly how Somalia’s parliament was appointed in 2012: a group of 135 clan elders chose 275 MPs, who in turn elected Mr Hassan. A possible tweak, says Mr Bryden, would be to involve representatives of Somalia’s ten “federal member states”, which were also created under the constitution of 2012. The idea would be to give anybody with any power a stake in the government’s success.

So far Mr Hassan is dividing Somalis more than uniting them. In August almost half of the MPs attempted (in vain) to impeach him, accusing him of corruption and incompetence. Relations between the central government and the states are just as fraught. Mr Hassan did turn up to the inauguration of the president of Jubaland, the southern strip of the country, on September 12th, to the surprise of some. But state leaders cannot be forced into supporting the central government. The autonomous region of Somaliland in the north, which is peaceful and in practice an independent country, will ignore the entire process.

While negotiations go on, the 22,000 troops deployed under the aegis of the AU have been fighting a costly war with al-Shabab. The militants have now been kicked out of almost all urban areas, but they maintain support in large parts of the countryside and are still capable of launching brutal attacks. At night “they roam half of Mogadishu”, says Cedric Barnes of International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO. On September 1st al-Shabab fighters briefly overran a Ugandan AU base, killing dozens of soldiers and taking more captive; the exact number of casualties is disputed. That attack was just the worst of several to have occurred in recent months. This week a car bomb at the presidential palace killed at least four people.

Western diplomats, arguing that political instability helps fuel al-Shabab’s violence, are openly frustrated by the slow progress of negotiations. On September 8th America opened a new embassy for Somalia—in Nairobi, neighbouring Kenya’s capital. But there are few levers to force agreement. Pulling back the AU forces and cutting the UN spending that helps sustain them are the only chips the peace-seeking diplomats have. With al-Shabab still strong, few would want to do that. Instead, the discussion drags on.

http://www.economist.com/news/middl...ernment-2007-it-proving-impossible-hold-fully

4.5 will remain in place, the parliament will be selected by elders and 'elections' will happen exactly as they did in 2012. He was given 4 years to move the country forward and he did diddly-squat. I bet he thinks he can buy the presidency again in '16.

 

[Geeljire]

The incumbents will be elected again.
Many people already know that which is why they are eying the 2022 elections and putting their stake on it.

Somalia is not fit for a democracy nor is it fit for federation.

This one man one vote nonsense. Will not work.

There will be no political stability & Legitimacy without genuine reconciliation.

 

[Duchess]

I agree that Somalis need genuine reconciliation but I doubt that is a priority for anyone currently in the political scene. Unfortunately, not every Somali believes that reconciliation is in their best interest. Some people believe reconciliation will led to them losing what they gained after Somalia's collapse and unless we change that mindset, Somalis will never be ready for reconciliation.

How do you feel about Somalia being stuck with 4.5 until at least 2022?

 

[Geeljire]

Yeah thats the problem they do not want reconciliation because they think it will undermine their concerns and interests. Thats why this staunch push for unity many people try is only going to backfire even further.

4.5? I think it should stay that way.

 

[Freebandz]

I don't care who becomes president as long as is not mj
Hawiye will be president for a long time to come
Lets do a simple math using the 4.5 system
Merahan
dhulbahante
ogaden
make up the 33 of the 61 darod seats
So that would leave mj and there cronies with 28 seats you know what lets give them the 3 mps they stole from dhulbahante so 31
Hg, dir and D&M don't f*ck with mj so
The 3 darod sub clans will either vote for themselves or in case of mx and dh vote for anybody but mj

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Parliament will probably stay in place, most members will bribe their clan elders with the money from 4 years of tuugnimo. Xasan is probably not coming back, too much bad blood between him and the MPs because he is not willing to share the money.

4.5 will last for sometime until a rough census is done.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

If Xassan Sheikh is elected expect more cries from Xaaji Fureey.
To be honest you would think Xassan Sheikh is a reincarnaton of Aideed. His love for money and his trubalistic view point is alarming and disturbing.