The Deyr rains have failed, there will be no harvest in January and all grazing will have run out in much of Somalia early in the same month. I predict a famine in April/May of 2017. From today until the end of April no rain is expected, and the situation is already horrible. Almost half of the country, 5 million people, need emergency humanitarian aid. This could be another 2011.
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook-update/november-2016
IPC4 is just before IPC5 which is Catastrophe (aka famine). What does not make sense is if the situation is expected to be IPC4 and further deteriorate, why not just say "we project a famine in Somalia"? My guess is they don't want to be seen as alarmists, but alarm bells should be going off everywhere.
Conditions are the worst ever recorded in over 30 years, even worse than 2011 when 260,000 people died.
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/november-11-2016
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/food-security-outlook-update/november-2016
In October, it was assumed that pasture and water resources would seasonally improve alongside Deyr rainfall. However, rainfall has been insufficient for pasture regeneration in most areas.
Current forecasts indicate that the April to June 2017 Gu rains will be below average.
From February to May, food security is expected to deteriorate throughout Somalia. Food insecurity will be the most severe in agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia where many poor households will not harvest any crops. With limited labor opportunities, little to no household harvests, and likely high staple cereal prices, food insecurity is expected deteriorate significantly and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely. Furthermore, if the 2017 Gu season is below average, as currently forecast, a third consecutive below-average season is likely and further deterioration in food security is expected. A more thorough analysis will be conducted in December to update expected food security outcomes through May 2017.
IPC4 is just before IPC5 which is Catastrophe (aka famine). What does not make sense is if the situation is expected to be IPC4 and further deteriorate, why not just say "we project a famine in Somalia"? My guess is they don't want to be seen as alarmists, but alarm bells should be going off everywhere.
Conditions are the worst ever recorded in over 30 years, even worse than 2011 when 260,000 people died.
http://www.fews.net/east-africa/somalia/alert/november-11-2016